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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model