Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(10:30) 8-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to SEA 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model