Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(1:11) 8-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to SEA 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.23 EP
44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model