Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(9:37) 8-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-20-K.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model