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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 33 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model