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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

HOU
56.3%
TEN
43.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Zach Mettenberger (TEN) -0.335 vs Brandon Weeden (HOU) -0.022 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Zach Mettenberger in place of Marcus Mariota; HOU starting Brandon Weeden in place of T.J. Yates)
  • HOU offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
TEN 17
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 37

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

HOU

Rahim Moore S Out Illness
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Jared Crick DE Questionable Back
Brian Hoyer QB Questionable Concussion
Alfred Blue RB Probable Back
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Hamstring
Christian Covington DT Probable Ankle
B.J. Daniels QB Probable Chest
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Ben Jones C Probable Hand
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Calf
J.J. Watt DE Probable Hand
Ryan Griffin TE Probable Achilles
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow

TEN

Marcus Mariota QB Out Knee
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee
Kendall Wright WR Probable Ribs
Harry Douglas WR Probable Ankle
Da'Norris Searcy S Probable Hamstring
Delanie Walker TE Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 34
–
TEN 6

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:10 TD HOU (13:10) 26-A.Andrews left end to TEN 32 for no gain (25-K.Jackson). FUMBLES (25-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by HOU-27-Q.Demps at TEN 33. 27-Q.Demps for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-88-C.Stevens, Offensive Holding, declined. HOU 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 03:23 FG HOU (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 10 – TEN 0
  • Q2 02:42 TD HOU (2:42) (Shotgun) 5-B.Weeden scrambles right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – TEN 0
  • Q3 11:38 TD HOU (11:38) (Shotgun) 5-B.Weeden pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – TEN 0
  • Q3 06:17 TD HOU (6:17) (Shotgun) 5-B.Weeden pass short right to 85-N.Washington for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Klug]. HOU 30 – TEN 0
  • Q3 00:59 FG HOU (:59) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 34 – TEN 0
  • Q4 01:35 TD TEN (1:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short left to 16-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 34 – TEN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to HOU 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 7 yards (39-D.Stafford).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 9 for 3 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), RECOVERED by HOU-46-J.Weeks at TEN 11. 46-J.Weeks to TEN 11 for no gain (57-J.Staples).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-34-A.Bouye, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:16) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 21 for 2 yards (45-J.Prosch).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 35 for 20 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 3 yards (37-C.Riggs).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:18) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas pushed ob at HOU 40 for 18 yards (28-A.Blue).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (:59) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:02) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 28 for 1 yard (40-K.Drummond).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:43) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to HOU 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 7 yards (16-T.McBride).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:07) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-H.Douglas.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:51) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 30 for 8 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (1:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass short left to 16-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.