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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-34-A.Bouye, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model