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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 83

Houston Texans 34 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 28 for 1 yard (40-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.83 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP