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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 4

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP