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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 68

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 21 for 2 yards (45-J.Prosch).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model