Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 62

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 9 for 3 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), RECOVERED by HOU-46-J.Weeks at TEN 11. 46-J.Weeks to TEN 11 for no gain (57-J.Staples).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.27 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model