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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to HOU 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 13 for 7 yards (39-D.Stafford).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model