Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 34

(6:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model