4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 89

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-H.Douglas pushed ob at HOU 40 for 18 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model