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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 18

Houston Texans 31 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model