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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 16:05 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
48.1%
OAK
51.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Wind 18 mph
  • GB offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 22
–
OAK 23
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Ty Montgomery WR Out Ankle
Sam Shields CB Out Concussion
Davante Adams WR Questionable Foot
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Hamstring
T.J. Lang G Questionable Shoulder
Corey Linsley C Questionable Ankle
Casey Hayward CB Probable Hamstring
David Bakhtiari T Probable Knee
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Ankle
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Knee
Austin Howard T Out Knee
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Neck
Shelby Harris DE Probable Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Probable Knee
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder
Amari Cooper WR Probable Foot
Khalil Mack DE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
OAK 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:12 TD GB (5:12) 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 05:03 TD GB (5:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 10-S.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Randall at LV 43. 23-D.Randall for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – OAK 0
  • Q2 14:56 FG LV (14:56) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King. GB 14 – OAK 3
  • Q2 08:40 FG LV (8:40) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King. GB 14 – OAK 6
  • Q2 00:25 TD LV (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – OAK 12
  • Q3 10:22 FG GB (10:22) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 17 – OAK 13
  • Q3 06:54 TD LV (6:54) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – OAK 19
  • Q3 05:52 TD GB (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 89-J.Jones for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – OAK 20
  • Q4 10:04 FG GB (10:04) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 27 – OAK 20
  • Q4 04:29 FG GB (4:29) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 30 – OAK 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:59) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to LV 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-J.Ross to LV 28 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 16%

    (9:31) 7-M.King punts 24 yards to GB 27, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:09) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to LV 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-J.Ross to LV 26 for -1 yards (22-A.Ripkowski). PENALTY on LV-75-S.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (14:56) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:46) 8-T.Masthay punts 57 yards to LV 22, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (8:40) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:20) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-47-J.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:11) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to GB 2, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:23) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to GB 36, Center-47-T.Gafford. 33-M.Hyde to 50 for 14 yards (42-L.Asante).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (10:22) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 65%

    (8:20) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray up the middle to GB 28 for 3 yards (90-B.Raji).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:25) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to GB 5, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-21-D.McDonald.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:04) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (4:29) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 14 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Crabtree (24-Q.Rollins).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 45-M.Reece to LV 35 for -1 yards (48-J.Thomas).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (1:12) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay, RECOVERED by LV-50-C.Lofton at LV 27. 50-C.Lofton to LV 39 for 12 yards (98-L.Guion).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 18-A.Holmes. Penalty on LV-89-A.Cooper, Illegal Motion, declined.