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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model