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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to LV 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-J.Ross to LV 28 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model