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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to GB 2, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP