Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Green Bay Packers 14

(13:23) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to GB 36, Center-47-T.Gafford. 33-M.Hyde to 50 for 14 yards (42-L.Asante).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model