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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-47-J.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP