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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model