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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Crabtree (24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP