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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model