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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 18-A.Holmes. Penalty on LV-89-A.Cooper, Illegal Motion, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -0.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model