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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SF
51.8%
CLE
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Johnny Manziel (CLE): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Johnny Manziel in place of Austin Davis)
  • SF defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SF

Carlos Hyde RB Out Foot
Vance McDonald TE Out Concussion
Michael Wilhoite LB Out Ankle
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Foot
Aaron Lynch LB Questionable Concussion
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Back
Arik Armstead DT Probable Shoulder
Anquan Boldin WR Probable Hamstring
Alex Boone G Probable Knee
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Quinton Dial DT Probable Shoulder
Kendall Gaskins RB Probable Hamstring
Marcus Martin C Probable Ankle
Erik Pears T Probable Knee
Mike Purcell DT Probable Shoulder
Joe Staley T Probable Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Probable Ankle
Andrew Tiller G Probable Knee
Eli Harold LB Probable Shoulder

CLE

Justin Gilbert CB Out Concussion
Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Taylor Gabriel WR Questionable Concussion
Gary Barnidge TE Questionable Ankle
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Shoulder
Brian Hartline WR Questionable Hip
Marlon Moore WR Questionable Ribs
Cameron Erving G Probable Ankle
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
CLE 24

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:40 TD CLE (5:40) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 09:06 FG CLE (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. SF 0 – CLE 10
  • Q2 04:16 FG SF (4:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – CLE 10
  • Q3 00:17 TD CLE (:17) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – CLE 16
  • Q4 08:53 TD CLE (8:53) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-55-A.Brooks, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SF 3 – CLE 23
  • Q4 01:48 TD SF (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 14-J.Simpson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – CLE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (9:55) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Q.Dial), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee, recovered by CLE-95-A.Bryant at SF 40. 95-A.Bryant to SF 42 for -2 yards (35-E.Reid).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:13) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CLE 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 33 for 11 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 71%

    (15:00) 2-B.Gabbert sacked at CLE 36 for -6 yards (44-N.Orchard).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:33) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:56) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Ellington to CLE 32 for 36 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 80%

    (4:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (10:50) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to CLE 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 32%

    (7:18) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 30 yards to SF 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:39) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 22.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:47) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CLE 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 18 for no gain (54-R.Armstrong). PENALTY on CLE-24-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CLE 18.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (6:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Simpson.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%

    (3:31) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-58-C.Kirksey.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 84-B.Bell to SF 37 for 24 yards (33-J.Poyer).