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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 10 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Ellington to CLE 32 for 36 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model