Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(9:13) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CLE 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model