4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP