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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 30 yards to SF 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP