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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 33 for 11 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model