Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 24

(2:51) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 84-B.Bell to SF 37 for 24 yards (33-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.24 EP
43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 87, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model