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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model