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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:33) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CLE 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP