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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Simpson.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model