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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
31.3%
CAR
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
CAR 27
Projected margin: CAR by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

ATL

Matt Bryant K Out right Quadricep
Paul Soliai DT Out Calf
Ricardo Allen S Probable Shin
Kemal Ishmael S Probable Shoulder
Julio Jones WR Probable Knee
Jacob Tamme TE Probable Shoulder
Chris Chester G Probable Shoulder
Devin Hester WR Probable Toe
Tony Moeaki TE Probable Hamstring

CAR

Brenton Bersin WR Doubtful Groin
Charles Tillman CB Doubtful Knee
Mario Addison DE Probable Ankle
Jared Allen DE Probable Not Injury Related
Jerricho Cotchery WR Probable Not Injury Related
Thomas Davis LB Probable Not Injury Related
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Not Injury Related
Ted Ginn WR Probable Not Injury Related
Roman Harper S Probable Not Injury Related
Ryan Kalil C Probable Not Injury Related
Greg Olsen TE Probable Not Injury Related
Jonathan Stewart RB Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 0
–
CAR 38

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:33 TD CAR (11:33) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams reported as eligible ATL 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 07:01 TD CAR (7:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Illegal Contact, declined. ATL 0 – CAR 13
  • Q1 00:20 TD CAR (:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 20
  • Q2 00:22 TD CAR (:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. ATL 0 – CAR 27
  • Q3 05:50 FG CAR (5:50) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. ATL 0 – CAR 31
  • Q3 02:26 TD CAR (2:26) (Shotgun) 43-F.Whittaker right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 23%

    (8:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:45) 5-M.Bosher punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 32%

    (11:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-R.White to CAR 35 for 12 yards (41-R.Harper). PENALTY on CAR-41-R.Harper, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:21) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 35 for no gain. PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to CAR 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:57) 8-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 24 for -1 yards (21-T.Williams).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%

    (5:50) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-54-S.Thompson. PENALTY on ATL-51-P.Wheeler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 29.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (9:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White to CAR 2 for 4 yards (33-T.Boston; 92-D.Edwards).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:30) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to CAR 44 for 11 yards (20-K.Coleman).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 49%

    (5:10) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree sacked at CAR 49 for -9 yards (93-K.Love).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 44%

    (2:44) 3-D.Anderson up the middle to ATL 42 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett; 94-T.Jackson).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree pass deep right intended for 16-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at CAR 36. 20-K.Coleman to CAR 46 for 10 yards (83-J.Tamme).