Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree pass deep right intended for 16-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at CAR 36. 20-K.Coleman to CAR 46 for 10 yards (83-J.Tamme).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.89 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP