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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 6

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White to CAR 2 for 4 yards (33-T.Boston; 92-D.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model