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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 38 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-D.Anderson up the middle to ATL 42 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett; 94-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.30 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model