Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 38 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-54-S.Thompson. PENALTY on ATL-51-P.Wheeler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model