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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP