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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 5-M.Bosher punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model