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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-R.White to CAR 35 for 12 yards (41-R.Harper). PENALTY on CAR-41-R.Harper, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model