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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model