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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PIT
47.3%
SEA
52.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.241 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Ryan Shazier LB Questionable Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Questionable Knee
Brandon Boykin CB Probable Ankle
Terence Garvin LB Probable Knee
James Harrison LB Probable Knee
Shamarko Thomas S Probable Knee

SEA

Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Marshawn Lynch RB Out Abdomen
Bruce Irvin LB Doubtful Knee
Patrick Lewis C Questionable Ankle
Thomas Rawls RB Probable Knee
Doug Baldwin WR Probable Ankle
Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related
Garry Gilliam T Probable Ankle
J.R. Sweezy G Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 30
–
SEA 39

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:37 FG PIT (5:37) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 12:22 TD SEA (12:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:47 TD PIT (8:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bryant left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – SEA 7
  • Q2 02:14 TD SEA (2:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Kearse for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – SEA 13
  • Q2 01:01 TD PIT (1:01) 34-De.Williams up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – SEA 14
  • Q3 05:54 FG PIT (5:54) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 21 – SEA 14
  • Q3 03:04 TD SEA (3:04) (Shotgun) 34-T.Rawls up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 21 – SEA 20
  • Q4 12:21 TD SEA (12:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 15-J.Kearse for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 21 – SEA 26
  • Q4 11:51 TD PIT (11:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 11-M.Wheaton for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – SEA 26
  • Q4 08:20 TD SEA (8:20) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – SEA 32
  • Q4 03:02 FG PIT (3:02) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 30 – SEA 32
  • Q4 02:14 TD SEA (2:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 30 – SEA 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:22) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 40%

    (11:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 29 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (5:37) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (3:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-L.Jones pass short left intended for 78-A.Villanueva INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Lane at SEA 22. 20-J.Lane to PIT 24 for 54 yards (66-D.DeCastro).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to PIT 18, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 32 for 14 yards (40-D.Coleman; 58-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 45%

    (12:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 28 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 13-Jac.Jones.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:54) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 35 for 3 yards (33-K.McCray; 15-J.Kearse). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 22%

    (:17) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to SEA 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:02) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.