4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 29 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model