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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model