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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 35 for 3 yards (33-K.McCray; 15-J.Kearse). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP