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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-L.Jones pass short left intended for 78-A.Villanueva INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Lane at SEA 22. 20-J.Lane to PIT 24 for 54 yards (66-D.DeCastro).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model