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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to PIT 18, Center-49-C.Gresham. 13-Jac.Jones to PIT 32 for 14 yards (40-D.Coleman; 58-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model